Playoffs Make or Break

So aside from all of the big games for conference championships, there are a number of games to watch tonight that have huge playoff implications for one or both teams, and whether they make the field of 224. My predictions have been posted, although I have obsessively been reviewing them since I posted them.

First, let me tell you that there are 191 teams that are in like Flynn. Even if they lose tonight or tomorrow, they still make the field.

Next, there are 17 more teams that are heavily favored to win this week, and if they do so, they will be in. For those of you scoring at home, that means 208 teams have now made the field. That leaves 16 spots for 39 teams that have a realistic chance of making it.

In order to get in, a team is going to have to have a .500 or better conference record. Assuming that there will be more than 16 of those remaining 39 teams that fit this category, we will next try to round out the field with teams that are .500 or better overall. This may be the cut off, and as such, we will look at games where those implications loom the most.

So what are the games to watch tonight and why? Let’s get started!

Wisconsin Dells (2-2, 6-2) @ Mauston (2-2,4-4)
This one is easy. The winner is in, the loser stays home. BIG GAME for both teams, obviously. Mauston is coming off back to back losses to Wautoma and Nekoosa. Wisconsin Dells was crushed last week by Wautoma and held scoreless on offense. It would be a shame if a 6-3 overall team missed the playoffs, but that’s the WIAA.

Belleville/Albany (2-2,2-6) @ New Glarus/Monticello (2-2,4-4)
New Glarus is at home, and has been the stronger of the two teams all year. Both teams have conference losses to Marshall and Cambridge, however, Belleville/Albany has lost to them the last two weeks only scoring a total of 8 points in both games. Whatever team wins is in.

Madison Edgewood (3-2,4-4)@ Stoughton (2-3,4-4)
This one is a classic. Edgewood missed an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth last week losing to Monona Grove 30-24. If they lose this week, they will have a .500 conference record, but they will have a losing overall record, and will put them squarely on the bubble. Five of their eight games have been decided by 7 points or less this season. Stoughton must win and they are in. This is the fourth straight week that they have been “win and in”, but losses to Milton, Monona Grove, and Monroe finds them now in “do or die”.

Tomah (3-3,4-4) @ Greenfield (3-3,4-4)
Who would have thought that this evenly matched non-conference game could be a win and in, lose and out game for BOTH teams. Both teams will finish at .500 in their conference, but the loser will have that overall losing record that will put them on the bubble. Greenfield is coming off a terrible loss to a 1-5 New Berlin West team that would have clinched a playoff spot for them. Now, the road is tough as Tomah has quality wins over Gale-Ettrick-Trempeleau (6-2),
La Crosse Central (5-3) and crushed rival Sparta last week 51-26.

Melrose-Mindoro (3-3,4-4) @ Cochrane-Fountain City (3-3,5-3)
Guess what….winner in, loser out. CFC missed two opportunities in the last two weeks to clinch a playoff berth with losses to Blair-Taylor and Independence/Gilman, the latter a two point loss 19-17 last week. Melrose-Mindoro are riding momentum as they have won their past two games against Independence/Gilman 27-7, and Lincoln 35-19. Advantage Melrose-Mindoro.

Medford (3-3,3-5) @ Seymour (3-3,4-4)
Another non-conference matchup in the final game has playoff implications. Both teams will finish .500 in their conference. Seymour can clinch a spot with a victory against Medford that will give them a winning overall record. Medford is a team that has lost their last three games by an average of 5.6 points, and must win to keep their hopes alive, and get on the bubble.

New Auburn (3-3,3-4) @ Lake Holcombe (3-3,3-5)
Winner in, loser out. New Auburn has won their last two games against Prairie Farm and Cornell to give them this chance. Lake Holcombe is on the other side of that coin, having lost it’s last two games, albeit to the top two teams in the Lakeland South conference Plum City (6-0,8-0) and Pepin (5-1,6-2). Lake Holcombe is at home, and is the better team.
Other close games where one team must win to get in include:

Fox Valley Lutheran (4-4,4-4) @ Winneconne (3-5, 3-5)
FVL is win and in, lose and they are a bubble team.

New Richmond (3-3,3-5) @ Amery (2-4,3-5)
It is win and in, lost and out for New Richmond.

Campbellsport (3-3,3-5) @ Sheboygan Falls (2-4,4-4)
It is win and in, lost and out for Campbellsport.

Kettle Moraine (3-3,4-4) @ Mukwonago (4-2,4-4)
It is win and in, lost and out for Kettle Moraine, but it will be a tough one on the road. They have a chance to pull the mild upset here.

Onalaska (2-3,5-3) @ La Crosse Central (3-2,5-3)
Onalaska has to go on the road and face La Crosse Central, but it is a winnable game for them. They win, they are in.

Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln (3-2,3-5) @ Marshfield (3-2,5-3)
Although over .500 in the conference right now, if Lincoln loses this game, they will end up at .500, but would likely be out based on their 3-6 overall record. Marshfield stays in even if they lose this game.

Maranatha Baptist (3-2,4-4) @ Rockford Christian (3-2,6-2)
Baptist faces an uphill challenge here on the road, and would likely be out if they lost.

It should be a very exciting Wednesday and Thursday across the state of Wisconsin. If your team wins tonight, be happy and joyful, but don’t forget that there are a lot of Seniors playing their last football game tonight. Appreciate them for what they have accomplished as student athletes through their careers, and wish them well in their lives.